The second half of Fall is the time of year some of my favorite science fiction short stories are published. But these stories don’t have spaceships, aliens, or robots. That’s right, I’m talking about the long-range forecast for the coming winter!
Why do I call them science fiction, you ask? Well, because they tend to be wrong. Here’s an overview from last year (see my post from last year):
The Farmer’s Almanac is predicting a very cold winter, especially the second half of the winter. (Though again… ‘bitterly cold and full of snow’ even describes a ‘warm’ Vermont winter). Accu-Weather predicts above average snow in northern Vermont but a slow start to winter in the southern part of the state. The Weather Channel has a similar forecast except for a warm December, along with a bunch of annoying audio ads. (a side note… why would anyone want a news video when they could read the same text five times as fast in peace?) NOAA’s typically vague forecast calls for above normal temperatures for the first part of the winter but equal odds of warmer or colder than average conditions later in the winter. Equal odds are given for a wet, dry, or average amount of precipitation. And if you don’t like those, there are more forecasts to choose from too.
The Farmer’s Almanac was correct this time… but it seems like they always forecast a very cold winter. The Accu-weather forecast was so/so, it wasn’t an unusually snowy winter, just a cold one. NOAA was dead wrong, except for the ‘equal odds’ forecasts which weren’t possible to quantify success. Perhaps that is the point.
So, the forecasts all called for something different, and thus some were correct and some weren’t. What are we up against this year?
While I don’t fully understand how this works, the Old Farmer’s Almanac is different from the Farmer’s Almanac. Their forecasts aren’t too different though… the former is calling for a ‘bitterly cold’ winter for northern New England and the latter for a ‘wintry, white and wet’ winter. Those all sound like a cold forecast, except for the ‘wet’ part which perhaps alludes to thaws or ice storms (yuck). Accu-weather calls for a ‘snowy’ winter. The Weather Channel again has a confusing forecast, in the text it calls for a warm December with little information about January, but the video calls for a cold winter. NOAA is again calling for a warmer than average winter with equal chances of high or low precipitation amounts.
For a minute in writing this I became confused that I perhaps clicked on some wrong links, because pretty much all of these forecasts are nearly identical to what each of them forecast last year.
In general i trust NOAA but I am skeptical of the warm forecast. The main reason was outlined in this previous post. There is evidence that the same sort of ridge setup that formed last year could recur this year. That pattern lead to cold conditions in New England, and unfortunately also led to drought in California. Hopefully I am wrong about that last bit as the situation there is quite dire.
As usual, it’s anyone’s guess. Between all these forecasts, one of them has to be correct, right? The last few days have been very warm with record highs set in several parts of Vermont, but next week will be colder – more normal late October weather is on the way. The mountains will probably even pick up their first significant snow.